The US policy of a “rolling list” of tariffs marks a paradigm shift in transatlantic trade, potentially signaling the end of an era of relative certainty and predictability. European businesses are now being forced to adapt to a new reality where the rules are fluid and political risk is a permanent cost of doing business with their largest partner.
For decades, despite occasional disputes, the EU-US trade relationship was anchored in a framework of established rules and agreements. This provided the certainty necessary for long-term investment and the development of intricate, cross-continental supply chains.
The “rolling list” shatters this paradigm. As Luisa Santos of BusinessEurope stated, with one side constantly expanding the list of dutiable goods, “it is very difficult to claim we have certainty.” This replaces the old paradigm of rule-based trade with a new one based on unilateral power and unpredictability.
This shift requires a fundamental change in business strategy. Companies can no longer rely on stable tariffs and regulations. They must now incorporate a high degree of geopolitical risk analysis into their planning, diversify their markets to reduce dependence on the US, and potentially even restructure their supply chains to insulate themselves from sudden policy changes.
The end of certainty is a profound and damaging development. It introduces a level of friction into the world’s largest economic relationship that will inevitably lead to less trade, less investment, and less shared prosperity than would have been possible under the old, more stable paradigm.